A blog about policy communications and digital public affairs, in a networked age.

Policy Communicator Blog | Aidan Muller

 

The Policy Communicator Blog

Aidan Muller

Helping organisations shape political and policy conversations.

A blog about policy communications and digital public affairs, in a networked age.

The blog includes commentary on new developments and trends in the sector, original models and frameworks, best practice and case studies. Insights draw heavily from the latest developments in cognitive psychology and linguistics.

In addition, the blog addresses broader societal issues, as they relate to communicating in politicised environments. Our success as a sector is not just contingent on what we do individually or as an organisation – it is also largely tied these days to the nature and health of our information environment.


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Ranking the potential alternatives to Twitter - LIVE

 

This article was originally published on 7 February 2023, but I am updating it as new platforms emerge – last updated on 30 January 2024.

In light of the chaos which has characterised Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter, many platforms have been touted as its successor. But do any of them stand up to scrutiny?

As detailed in my previous blog post, the policy sector still needs a forum to discuss policy and engage with other policy influencers, politicians, commentators and journalists. But while they might criticise the platform or voice their frustration – typically on Twitter – they are unlikely to leave until their audiences and peers migrate elsewhere en masse. And for this to happen, a platform needs to fulfil Twitter’s role (in the most part at least).

This article sets out my assessment of each of the individual platforms which have been mentioned over the last few months, and how likely they are to replace the platform. We start with an overall ranking, before offering a lowdown, platform-by-platform. For ease of reference, I’ve broken them down according to four categories: mainstream platforms; challenger platforms; outsider platforms; and newcomer platforms.

Overall ranking

It is telling that out of a five-point scale – with ‘5 stars’ being most likely to replace Twitter and ‘1 star’ being least likely – none of the established social platforms score more than three points. This is because none of them have the frictionless functionality to fulfil the role that Twitter does, in terms of real-time reactions to news, agenda-setting, and influencer networking.

The most promising for the policy sector are some of the next generation of micro-blogging news apps: in particular Threads (Meta) and Bluesky Social. However, they still have a way to go before replacing Twitter.

★★★★☆  Threads (Meta)
★★★★☆  Bluesky Social
★★★☆☆  LinkedIn
★★☆☆☆  Reddit
★★☆☆☆  Discord
★★☆☆☆  Instagram
★★☆☆☆  Facebook
★★☆☆☆  Truth Social
★★☆☆☆  Post News
★☆☆☆☆  Mastodon
★☆☆☆☆  Substack
★☆☆☆☆  Tumblr
★☆☆☆☆  Gettr
★☆☆☆☆  Snapchat
★☆☆☆☆  WhatsApp
★☆☆☆☆  Telegram
★☆☆☆☆  TikTok
★☆☆☆☆  Parler
★☆☆☆☆  Clubhouse
★☆☆☆☆  Vkontakte
★☆☆☆☆  Sina Weibo
★☆☆☆☆  WeChat
★☆☆☆☆  Gab
★☆☆☆☆  Rumble
★☆☆☆☆  BitChute
★☆☆☆☆  Artifact

Mainstream platforms

For a platform to realistically take over from Twitter, it would need to achieve critical mass in terms of its user base – which is the hardest thing to achieve. All of the well-established, mainstream platforms have done this – and, in the main, already count many policy professionals as users. So they are automatically worthy of consideration.

But none of them aspire to replace Twitter (not publicly at least). And if they ever did, they would require significant re-engineering. This feels like too high a risk for a platform that has already achieved popularity. If it ain’t broke…

Facebook

Facebook remains the most popular social media platform globally, and Meta has its sights on Twitter. Despite this, Facebook content does not drive the political news agenda like Twitter does. The platform lacks a town square appeal for influencers to openly connect and engage. This is due to its restricted user profiles, limited potential for genuine interaction with public figures, lengthy posts and inadequate hashtag monitoring. Whereas Twitter has catered for both hype and calm(ish) professional engagement, Facebook never achieved the latter. So although Facebook could in theory fill the void left by Twitter with some functionality changes, my sense is it will struggle to appeal to a policy audience that values thoughtfulness and expertise.

Likelihood: ★★☆☆☆

Instagram

Instagram, like Twitter, excels in the entertainment realm, generating news coverage in sports, entertainment, and lifestyle. However, it faces limitations in driving political and policy discussions due to its image-focused approach to posting, hierarchical interactions, lack of link sharing, and unsophisticated hashtag monitoring. While these features are all possible to address individually, the platform has typically been seen by users as more light-hearted than Twitter – and even a refuge from its overly-political cousin. The user base is there, but do instagrammers have the appetite?  (EDIT: Since publishing, Meta has announced a text-driven version of Instagram to compete with Twitter, codenamed ‘Project Barcelona’ – we discuss this platform separately below, in the ‘newcomer’ section.)

Likelihood: ★★☆☆☆

LinkedIn

LinkedIn is known as a professional social network, and already attracts a number of policy and academic users. However, it is not as widely used by politicians or journalists. Crucially, it values its reputation as a thoughtful alternative to Twitter. Its current functionality, including unsophisticated hashtag monitoring, long posts, restricted profiles, and limited API sharing, prevents it from replacing Twitter's real-time feed or serving as a town square. LinkedIn's apolitical culture and lack of desire to fill the Twitter void are also significant barriers. Anecdotally, it does seem to have benefited from many users giving up on Twitter – however, long term, it is not a replacement for Twitter.

Likelihood: ★★★☆☆

Reddit

Reddit is already a vibrant platform for debate and conversation, on anything from current affairs to entertainment to retail investing. Its forum-like functionality encourages conversation, and it is – if anything – more organised than Twitter. Subscribing to subreddits can help with curating content, and it has a lively ecosystem of platform influencers. Crucially, it also has proven IRL impact – from acting as a meme factory for Donald Trump’s election in 2016, to sending GameStop’s shares soaring in 2021. It currently has more of a subculture appeal though, and isn’t widely used by journalists, politicians or policy influencers. Among the well-established platforms it is as good a candidate as any, but remains an outside chance. (UPDATE: While it remains a lively forum for political discussions, its decision to limit access to its data – amid protests from its users – signals that becoming a public square this is not their direction of travel.)

Likelihood: ★★☆☆☆

Tumblr

Tumblr has been around for 15 years, and its functionality is not too dissimilar from Twitter. It is easy to use. It allows you to post short-form and long-form posts with images and videos. It allows you to follow other users, and displays their posts in a feed. It allows you to comment on other posts. It has a direct messages feature. It has a well-established user base built over that period. The flipside of this, however, is that it already has its own culture and reputation for being slightly chaotic, and is subject to inappropriate content. It is not clear that the platform – nor its existing users – would welcome a reorientation towards filling the Twitter-shaped void.

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

TikTok

TikTok is more of a video content discovery platform. Video format does not lend itself to easily commenting on current affairs in real time, and is a high barrier to entry for policy influencers. Creates a hierarchy between original poster and commenter. Feed does not allow quick scroll. Does not allow sharing of links. Also, allowing it to replace Twitter as the main vehicle for social news would be too problematic politically.

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

WhatsApp

While widely used, the messaging app does not have any open or public dialogue functionality. No news feed. No access to public content or search function. It is not a serious alternative to Twitter.

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Telegram

Similarly to WhatsApp, no open or public dialogue functionality. No news feed. No access to public content or search function. Again, not a serious alternative to Twitter.

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Snapchat

More of a private messaging app, Snapchat does not allow open or public dialogue. No news feed. No access to public content or search function.

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Vkontakte

The Russian Facebook. Irrespective of the functionality, the idea that the US authorities would allow Vkontakte to replace Twitter is fanciful.

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Sina Weibo and WeChat

Weibo is often called the Chinese version of Twitter, while Musk reportedly aspires to turning Twitter into an ‘everything-app’ modelled on WeChat. The prospect of either of these replacing Twitter is too problematic politically for them to be serious contenders.

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Challenger platforms

The following platforms have each been mentioned at various points as potential alternatives to Twitter. they have been around for a few years, have shown consistent growth over that period, and could each make a decent case for filling a potential Twitter-shaped void.

Mastodon looked like an early favourite – but a month on, it has lost momentum and Discord now seems like the more realistic option (if any).

Discord

A favourite among gamers well before Musk’s takeover of Twitter, the platform’s functionality is well-suited to real-time interaction. This is not a bad option, however Discord’s server-based setup is more like siloed chatrooms, than a single public town square facilitating the free flow of information. It is also unclear how the platform would deal with multiple nested replies. Overall, this is not the worst option. At 154 million monthly active users as of January 2023, it is more than just a promising newcomer. Going against it though, it might require some change to the functionality to facilitate a global search and hashtag monitoring feature. 

Likelihood: ★★☆☆☆

Mastodon

This was the most popular suggestion at the height of the chaos, attracting over 2.5 million active users in early December. Its decentralised approach was its main attraction, making it supposedly more privacy-focused, and less subject to third-party censorship or moderation. Given mainstream platforms’ struggle with these issues, the appeal of a decentralised philosophy is clear. Ultimately though, many users abandoned the polatform within a month, saying it was too complicated to use. It was going to take a period of sustained growth to displace Twitter’s 556 million monthly active users – but following its December peak, active users dropped more than 30% in January, and there is little sign of picking up again. Still, worth keeping an eye on.

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Substack

The Substack platform itself is aimed at a far smaller audience than Twitter – an audience of long-form content writers and consumers. The Substack Notes feature allows for sharing of links, images and the like – and could be seen as a challenger to Twitter. Musk certainly thought so, judging by his massive over-reaction to news of its release. But the truth is, Notes feels a lot more niche, and aimed at an audience of writers. With its paid subscribers, it is a different offer to Twitter, and even then it feels like it has a long way to go before it can seriously be compared to Twitter. (UPDATE: Substack’s alt-right moderation controversy in January 2024 saw users leaving the platform in droves – while this may not be the death knell for the platform, it makes it an unlikely candidate to replace Twitter.)

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Clubhouse

Clubhouse encourages conversation in an intimate-feeling atmosphere. However, the fact that Clubhouse is based on audio content puts a limit on the circumstances in which it can be used. For example, it is not appropriate at a live event or in an office environment. It also limits the extent to which public content can be searched or monitored. Clubhouse’s peak might well have been in 2021, and the app certainly seems to have lost momentum since. It does not feel like a realistic alternative to Twitter.

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Outsider platforms

The following platforms would love to take over from Twitter, and have intentionally modelled their functionality on Twitter or microblogging sites more generally. They all position themselves as the “free-speech alternative” to Twitter, and target a more conservative audience (often including the alt-right).

Unfortunately for them, none of these platforms had achieved critical mass even before Musk’s takeover. And it is very unlikely that Twitter users seeking refuge from Musk’s Twitter would look to them as the answer.

Truth Social

President Trump’s social network. As of April 2022 it counted 513,000 active daily users, compared to Twitter's reported active daily user base of 217 million. Truth Social represented a regular source of news for just 2% of US adults – as a benchmark, Twitter was a regular source of news for 13% of US adults in September 2021. The general feeling is that the platform has struggled to scale, and the lack of momentum suggests it is past its peak. The only reason it remains at two stars is that with Trump performing well in the US presidential primaries, it would be foolish to completely write it off.

Likelihood: ★★☆☆☆

Parler

For a period between June 2020 and January 2021, it looked like Parler might make it into the big-time. At its peak around November 2020, it was the most downloaded free app in the Apple App Store and on the Google Play store. However, following its role in the storming of the Capitol and its lack of a content moderation policy, it was banned by Google, Apple and Amazon. In absolute terms, it only ever reached four million active users a day compared to Twitter’s 187 million. It has since been treading water, and was bought by digital media conglomerate Starboard who have pulled the app down to undergo a “strategic assessment".

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Gettr

Founded by senior Trump advisor Jason Miller and launched in 2021, Gettr is a relatively new addition to the growing cacophony of right-wing Twitter challengers collectively known as ‘alt-tech’. Influential joiners have included Joe Rogan and Mike Pompeo. As of February 2022, Gettr claimed to have 4.5 million registered users, though the numbers are unverified. How many of these are active users is anyone’s guess, especially since the platform reportedly allows users to import their Twitter followers and create accounts for them. As of May 2022, Gettr was a regular source of news for just 1% of US adults (with Twitter at 13%, for comparison). The shadiness of the platform’s denied-then-exposed connection to Chinese businessman and dissident Guo Wengui could prove problematic reputationally. (UPDATE: One year on, Gettr has failed to make any lasting impression – this is probably not the long-term solution.)

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Gab

The platform has a reputation for being a haven for extreme far-right views, which automatically limits its likelihood of becoming anything more than a fringe platform. There is scant reliable or current information about its user base. However hacked data from the platform shows that of its 4 million registered users, only 100,000 have posted more than ten times – suggesting this is much closer to its actual active users. Gab was a regular source of news for just 1% of US adults as of May 2022 (with Twitter at 13%, for comparison).

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Rumble and BitChute

As online video platforms, these two sites see themselves more as alternatives to YouTube than to Twitter. Either way, their reach remains limited. As of May 2022, Rumble and BitChute were regular sources of news for just 2% and 1% of US adults respectively (with Twitter at 13%, for comparison). 

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Newcomer platforms

Perhaps the most promising platforms are a next-generation cohort of platforms, who have the stated ambition to rethink some of the major challenges facing today’s media ecosystem: from the economics of news publishers to the challenges of content moderation, via the issue of filter bubbles and echo chambers. There are a host of newcomers in the pipeline,– including Hive Social, T2, Cohost, Plurk, Koo, Amino, Raftr – but I have just focused on the most promising-sounding. (That list will undoubtedly change as time goes on!)

These platforms have either only recently launched, are in beta mode, or are in the process of launching. Many of them come with some pedigree, which means we ignore them at our peril. The proof, however, will be in the pudding. And – barring some catastrophic development at Twitter (which is not out of the question) – it will be a while before any of these reach the critical mass necessary to take over from Twitter.

Bluesky Social

Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey’s new project – which in itself should lend it some credibility. The platform’s functionality is almost a carbon copy of Twitter’s, with one major exception: the platform will be decentralised. This model is seen as an answer to questions about centralised moderation, which Dorsey is keen to side-step. Given these are controversial issues (e.g. hate speech, the ban on Donald Trump), this sounds like it could be a sensible approach. However, it is not clear as yet how it will differ from Mastodon, as the platform is not yet fully open to the public (it is invite-only at time of writing). But we can imagine the Bluesky team will have been paying close attention to Mastodon, and learnt from users’ lukewarm reaction to its user experience. The biggest challenge for Bluesky will be achieving critical mass.

Likelihood: ★★★★

Threads (Meta)

Originally called Project Barcelona, Meta launched Threads as a text-based Instagram – or “Instagram for your thoughts”, as it was originally pitched. While it is still early doors, Threads has quietly gone about its business. The functionality almost mirrors Twitter’s, with a couple of notable exceptions: users cannot yet search for keywords or follow hashtags. For a platform which wants to embed itself in real-time commentary, this is surely just a matter of time. The platform also claims that it is decentralised, though it is not yet clear exactly what this means or how it manifests itself. Either way, the proven concept of Instagram and the fact it will use Instagram login details will give Threads a huge advantage over other newcomers, as it has been able to draw on Instagram’s (and no doubt Facebook’s) huge existing user base.

Likelihood: ★★★★

Post News

Post seeks to revolutionise the news publishing economy with a feed-based platform where publishers and writers share articles. Users pay for in-platform articles via micro-payments, resembling Twitter's functionality. The beta version was expedited after Twitter's turmoil began. It is not yet available as a native app and functionality is being added all the time, but it has already signed up heavy-hitters like Politico, NBC News, LA Times, Reuters, Wired, Brookings Institution, and MIT Technology Review. While the offer will be intriguing for publishers and journalists, convincing avid news consumers to pay for content is a challenge. Still, it warrants attention.

Likelihood: ★★☆☆☆

Artifact

Developed by Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger (the creators of Instagram), and only just launched in January 2023, Artifact aims for a more personalised and social news reading experience. Described as a “TikTok for news”, it is a different offer to Twitter’s. But if we’ve learnt anything from Instagram it’s that Systrom and Krieger know how to build experiences. They are also trying to break through filter bubbles and reshape the economics of online news (both of which are at risk from AI). It certainly ticks a number of Twitter boxes. But key questions remain on other features which cemented Twitter’s value: how about live-tweeting? Writing articles yourself? Becoming an influencer? (UPDATE: Artifact announced it was closing down in January 2024, after failing to find a robust economic model.)

Likelihood: ☆☆☆☆

Our verdict

While the situation is changing fast, this is no reason to sit back. In the field of policy communications, we’ve had the luxury of having a reasonably stable suite of social media platforms to choose from in the last 3-4 years. We’re now facing a period of flux, and those who are planning ahead will eventually reap the rewards.

My best advice in the immediate term is to raise your LinkedIn game. Medium term, pick a small number of platforms to experiment with over the coming year (particularly Threads and Bluesky). Set up a taskforce and test new platforms in small groups. You won’t be able to try them all, so use your best judgement about which ones are the most promising.

And if you want to keep up with the latest developments on the new platforms vying for Twitter’s place, this helpful page on the Verge updates with their latest coverage.

 
 
Aidan Muller